Race 4B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christine Klingler 24.9% 20.7% 15.5% 13.8% 9.8% 6.9% 3.3% 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Allison Cahn 5.0% 5.3% 5.9% 7.2% 8.0% 8.1% 8.7% 9.5% 11.4% 8.3% 10.0% 8.7% 3.9%
Liza Toppa 6.1% 8.7% 8.9% 9.9% 9.0% 9.5% 10.2% 11.0% 9.3% 6.7% 5.7% 3.7% 1.3%
Sophie Hibben 17.5% 16.7% 15.2% 11.0% 11.8% 8.9% 8.1% 4.9% 2.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
Charlotte Lenz 4.9% 3.8% 4.9% 5.8% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 8.9% 9.9% 11.8% 12.4% 9.9% 7.3%
Elizabeth Holiman 2.6% 3.6% 4.8% 4.1% 3.8% 6.6% 7.0% 8.6% 9.5% 11.4% 11.1% 15.4% 11.5%
Rebecca Read 8.4% 8.1% 8.2% 9.0% 8.3% 9.5% 10.5% 10.3% 8.5% 7.5% 6.3% 3.5% 1.9%
Christina Nothacker 6.9% 6.9% 7.2% 7.1% 9.0% 9.0% 10.4% 9.6% 10.6% 9.3% 7.6% 4.7% 1.7%
Alexandra Wagner 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 3.6% 2.0% 2.5% 3.3% 3.7% 6.6% 9.1% 15.6% 47.2%
Kathryn Bornarth 7.3% 5.1% 7.0% 8.5% 8.6% 9.0% 9.6% 9.5% 9.4% 9.0% 8.3% 6.2% 2.5%
Meredith Julian 2.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.0% 5.7% 7.0% 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 12.2% 12.6% 13.4% 9.6%
Emma Kaneti 10.7% 13.9% 11.9% 12.0% 11.9% 10.0% 9.2% 7.1% 5.5% 3.7% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Margaret MacCormack 2.3% 2.3% 3.6% 4.6% 3.9% 6.7% 6.5% 7.0% 9.0% 10.8% 13.0% 17.7% 12.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.