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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego2.19+8.24vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.92+4.63vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands2.77+4.20vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+1.62vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.50-0.23vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine2.83+1.11vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay2.30+2.06vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.57-0.13vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University2.38-0.38vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+1.08vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University2.02-1.02vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon2.51-3.81vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.57-1.41vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles2.63-6.49vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis1.68-4.68vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz1.99-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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6.63University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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7.2California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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4.77Stanford University3.500.2%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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9.06California State University Monterey Bay2.300.1%1st Place
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7.87University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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8.62Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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9.98Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Oregon2.510.1%1st Place
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11.59University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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7.51University of California at Los Angeles2.630.1%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Santa Cruz1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Alamillo | 2.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Zachary Hester | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Gregory Dair | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Nick Dugdale | 15.7% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Porter | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Bradley Schoch | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| Thomas Maher | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 15.8% |
| Bryan Rust | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% |
| Philip Gordon | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 21.4% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Lee | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 17.3% |
| Andrew Cowley | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.