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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+4.51vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego2.19+7.39vs Predicted
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3University of Oregon2.51+5.25vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.48vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay2.30+4.12vs Predicted
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6Stanford University4.05-2.46vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles2.63+0.90vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.92-1.37vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University2.02+1.02vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.57-1.89vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.99-0.79vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University2.38-3.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine2.83-5.96vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis1.68-3.81vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley1.57-4.26vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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9.39University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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8.25University of Oregon2.510.1%1st Place
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7.48California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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9.12California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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3.54Stanford University4.050.3%1st Place
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7.9University of California at Los Angeles2.630.1%1st Place
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6.63University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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10.02Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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10.21University of California at Santa Cruz1.990.0%1st Place
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8.77Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.04University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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11.19University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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11.74University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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11.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 10.7% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Eric Alamillo | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% |
| Philip Gordon | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Gregory Dair | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Bradley Schoch | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Kevin Laube | 25.5% | 18.3% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Zachary Hester | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Bryan Rust | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Andrew Cowley | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.2% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 5.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% |
| Jack Porter | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Lee | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 18.1% |
| Aubrey Toole | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 21.3% |
| Thomas Maher | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 15.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.