← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California State University Channel Islands-0.48+12.28vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.75+3.51vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+0.13vs Predicted
-
4California Poly Maritime Academy2.60-0.68vs Predicted
-
5University of California at San Diego0.80+3.78vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley1.57-0.09vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Los Angeles0.92+1.17vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+4.12vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-2.67vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Berkeley0.64-0.95vs Predicted
-
11California Poly Maritime Academy0.81-2.57vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+0.23vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Irvine-0.09-1.38vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Davis0.13-2.82vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-2.07vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Santa Cruz-1.25-0.33vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-0.73-2.96vs Predicted
-
18San Diego State University-0.46-4.89vs Predicted
-
19University of California at San Diego-1.19-3.80vs Predicted
-
20California State University Channel Islands-0.48-6.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
13.28California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
-
5.51University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
-
3.13University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.3%1st Place
-
3.32California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.2%1st Place
-
8.78University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
-
5.91University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
-
8.17University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
-
12.12University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
-
6.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
-
9.05University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
-
8.43California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
-
12.23University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
-
11.62University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
-
11.18University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
-
12.93University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
-
15.67University of California at Santa Cruz-1.250.0%1st Place
-
14.04University of California at San Diego-0.730.0%1st Place
-
13.11San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
-
15.2University of California at San Diego-1.190.0%1st Place
-
13.28California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Marcellini | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 9.3% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 26.0% | 20.2% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 21.7% | 20.4% | 19.9% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Zemke | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Mack | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 17.4% | 29.6% | 0.0% |
| Fisher Price | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Davis | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 17.1% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.