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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+2.34vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.75+3.48vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+0.14vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands-0.48+9.29vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+3.33vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+2.43vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.80+1.55vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.64+1.39vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+3.90vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+1.83vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-4.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.57-5.79vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.73+0.93vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.13-2.82vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.46-1.96vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz-1.25-0.34vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-5.17vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.19-2.50vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-0.48-5.71vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-0.09-8.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.2%1st Place
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5.48University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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3.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.3%1st Place
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13.29California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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8.43California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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8.55University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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9.39University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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12.9University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.83University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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6.21University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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13.93University of California at San Diego-0.730.0%1st Place
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11.18University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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13.04San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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15.66University of California at Santa Cruz-1.250.0%1st Place
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11.83University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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15.5University of California at San Diego-1.190.0%1st Place
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13.29California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
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11.55University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannes McElvain | 23.2% | 21.0% | 16.8% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 26.9% | 20.1% | 16.5% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Zemke | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fisher Price | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Mack | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Davis | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 26.5% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.