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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.75+4.37vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+1.30vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands-0.48+9.94vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.57+1.90vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+3.07vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-2.97vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-0.73vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+0.50vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+3.60vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.80-1.78vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+0.68vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.64-2.91vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.46-0.38vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-2.32vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz-1.25+0.16vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.13-5.33vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.37vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.21-2.66vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.19-4.08vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-0.48-7.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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3.3California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.2%1st Place
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12.94California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
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5.9University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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3.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.3%1st Place
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6.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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8.5California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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12.6University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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11.68University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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12.62San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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11.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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15.16University of California at Santa Cruz-1.250.0%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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14.63University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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15.34University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
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14.92University of California at San Diego-1.190.0%1st Place
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12.94California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Alexander | 7.5% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 24.4% | 19.5% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 27.9% | 22.5% | 17.1% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Zemke | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Mack | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Felix Slothower | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 16.6% | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| Warren Ko | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Davis | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.