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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+2.09vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.92+5.99vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+0.34vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.75+1.34vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands-0.48+8.21vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+2.25vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.57-1.15vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.64+1.09vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-2.83vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.80-1.80vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+1.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-0.09vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.71vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.13-3.20vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.46-2.30vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz-1.25-0.65vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.43vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.21-2.75vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.19-4.12vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-0.48-6.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.09University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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7.99University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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3.34California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.2%1st Place
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5.34University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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13.21California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
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8.25California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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6.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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8.2University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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12.74University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.91University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.29University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.8University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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12.7San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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15.35University of California at Santa Cruz-1.250.0%1st Place
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14.57University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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15.25University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
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14.88University of California at San Diego-1.190.0%1st Place
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13.21California State University Channel Islands-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 24.6% | 23.7% | 18.2% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 23.8% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Zemke | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Mack | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 16.1% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| Felix Slothower | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| Warren Ko | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 21.8% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Davis | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 18.1% | 0.0% |
| Neil Marcellini | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.