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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+4.53vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands2.77+5.32vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.50+1.89vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz1.99+6.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego2.19+4.57vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California3.16+0.07vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles2.63+0.96vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+2.94vs Predicted
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9University of Oregon2.51-0.78vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay2.30-0.76vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University2.02-0.88vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis1.68-0.68vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.57-1.38vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University2.38-5.30vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine2.83-8.76vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii2.92-10.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.53University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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7.32California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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4.89Stanford University3.500.2%1st Place
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10.39University of California at Santa Cruz1.990.0%1st Place
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9.57University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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6.07University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Los Angeles2.630.1%1st Place
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10.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Oregon2.510.1%1st Place
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9.24California State University Monterey Bay2.300.1%1st Place
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10.12Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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8.7Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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6.85University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Nick Dugdale | 15.6% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Cowley | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.7% |
| Eric Alamillo | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% |
| Stephen Lue | 9.8% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| Thomas Maher | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 14.3% |
| Philip Gordon | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% |
| Bradley Schoch | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Bryan Rust | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| Ryan Lee | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 19.8% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 21.3% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Jack Porter | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Zachary Hester | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.