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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.83+2.56vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.90+1.47vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+3.16vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine3.43+0.66vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California3.12+0.40vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley2.12+2.58vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay1.64+3.15vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+1.96vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles2.28-1.09vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon1.97-0.99vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.10+0.73vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.96+0.12vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego1.57-2.69vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University0.77-1.38vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands1.09-3.11vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University2.15-7.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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3.47Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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6.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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4.66University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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5.4University of Southern California3.120.1%1st Place
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8.58University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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10.15California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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9.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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7.91University of California at Los Angeles2.280.0%1st Place
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9.01University of Oregon1.970.0%1st Place
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11.73University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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12.12Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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10.31University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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12.62Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
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11.89California State University Channel Islands1.090.0%1st Place
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8.48Western Washington University2.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Peterson | 21.5% | 20.0% | 16.6% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 23.4% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Rex Cameron | 13.0% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Dahl | 9.6% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
| Erik Lund | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Andrew Morton | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Andrew Balter | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Connor Bescos | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 15.6% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 16.2% | 20.4% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Steven Cassingham | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 27.6% |
| Andrew Domingos | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 15.8% | 15.7% |
| Patrick Taylor | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.