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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine3.43+3.49vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.90+1.49vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+3.18vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii3.83-0.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles2.28+3.01vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California3.12-0.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley2.12+1.58vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University2.15+0.19vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University0.96+3.07vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon1.97-0.93vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-0.92vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.57-1.70vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-1.28vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands1.09-2.29vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay1.64-4.85vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University0.77-3.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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3.49Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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6.18University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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3.72University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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8.01University of California at Los Angeles2.280.0%1st Place
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5.48University of Southern California3.120.1%1st Place
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8.58University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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8.19Western Washington University2.150.0%1st Place
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12.07Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Oregon1.970.0%1st Place
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10.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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10.3University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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11.72University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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11.71California State University Channel Islands1.090.0%1st Place
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10.15California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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12.75Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Cameron | 14.9% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 24.0% | 17.7% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William Peterson | 19.2% | 18.4% | 14.8% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morton | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Emily Dahl | 9.4% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Patrick Taylor | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 19.9% |
| Andrew Balter | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Erik Lund | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 15.4% |
| Andrew Domingos | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 15.7% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 4.0% |
| Steven Cassingham | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 25.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.