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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.20+2.55vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.05+1.98vs Predicted
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3Maine Maritime Academy0.72+3.42vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.36-0.82vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy0.25+2.00vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-0.99vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.64-2.35vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College0.21-0.77vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.96-5.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55Bowdoin College2.200.2%1st Place
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3.98University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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6.42Maine Maritime Academy0.720.0%1st Place
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3.18Northeastern University2.360.2%1st Place
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7.0Maine Maritime Academy0.250.0%1st Place
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5.01Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.1%1st Place
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4.65University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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7.23Middlebury College0.210.0%1st Place
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3.99Tufts University1.960.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perham Black | 18.7% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Colin Richards | 14.5% | 13.5% | 18.0% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Mott Blair | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 23.6% | 17.6% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 22.7% | 22.0% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 21.2% | 33.4% |
| Christos Karplus | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 14.9% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| Aidan Scanlon | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% |
| Anna Spiro | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 22.8% | 37.7% |
| Austen Freda | 15.3% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.