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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.20+2.55vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.05+1.94vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.64+1.62vs Predicted
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4Maine Maritime Academy0.72+2.28vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.36-1.82vs Predicted
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6Maine Maritime Academy0.25+1.14vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-1.90vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College0.21-0.78vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.96-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55Bowdoin College2.200.2%1st Place
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3.94University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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4.62University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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6.28Maine Maritime Academy0.720.0%1st Place
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3.18Northeastern University2.360.3%1st Place
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7.14Maine Maritime Academy0.250.0%1st Place
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5.1Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.1%1st Place
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7.22Middlebury College0.210.0%1st Place
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3.96Tufts University1.960.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perham Black | 18.2% | 18.3% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Colin Richards | 12.9% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Scanlon | 10.1% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 1.9% |
| Mott Blair | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 20.6% | 18.2% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 25.7% | 20.5% | 15.6% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 23.9% | 33.6% |
| Christos Karplus | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 4.1% |
| Anna Spiro | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 22.4% | 38.0% |
| Austen Freda | 15.6% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.