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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.20+2.56vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.05+1.96vs Predicted
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3Maine Maritime Academy0.72+3.43vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.36-0.81vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-0.07vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.64-1.45vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy0.25+0.17vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College0.21-0.78vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.96-5.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56Bowdoin College2.200.2%1st Place
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3.96University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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6.43Maine Maritime Academy0.720.0%1st Place
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3.19Northeastern University2.360.2%1st Place
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4.93Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.1%1st Place
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4.55University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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7.17Maine Maritime Academy0.250.0%1st Place
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7.22Middlebury College0.210.0%1st Place
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3.97Tufts University1.960.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perham Black | 18.5% | 17.4% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Colin Richards | 14.0% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Mott Blair | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 18.5% | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 22.7% | 21.1% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Christos Karplus | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 4.9% |
| Aidan Scanlon | 11.5% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 23.5% | 35.3% |
| Anna Spiro | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 24.0% | 36.8% |
| Austen Freda | 14.9% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.