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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+4.92vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+5.23vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.09+4.70vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.12+3.67vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.23+5.93vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.82+3.03vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University1.95+5.15vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.13-0.51vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.97-0.60vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.99+1.95vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.08+0.72vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.56-5.91vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.93-4.45vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.39-3.32vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-2.35vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.80-7.09vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-11.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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7.7Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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7.67Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.93University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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9.03Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.15Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.49Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.4Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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11.95Eckerd College1.990.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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6.09Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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10.68Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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12.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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8.91University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Eli Burnes | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Cameron Nash | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Mark Davies | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 15.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Ian Willoughby | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 14.8% |
| Max Thompson | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 15.6% |
| Romain Screve | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 7.0% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 24.2% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Charles Miller | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.