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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.56+4.72vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+3.70vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.93+5.25vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.82+4.76vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.23+5.81vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.99vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+0.20vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.96-0.04vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.12-1.31vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.39+0.21vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.13-3.36vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.09-4.40vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-0.35vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.08-2.28vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.97-6.97vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.99-4.01vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.95-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.72Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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5.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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8.76Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.81University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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8.99University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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7.96Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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7.69Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.21Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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7.64Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.6Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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12.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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8.03Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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11.99Eckerd College1.990.0%1st Place
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12.07Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Screve | 13.6% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Charles Miller | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Cameron Nash | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| Mack Fox | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Jack McGraw | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Eli Burnes | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 9.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 15.9% | 21.4% |
| Max Thompson | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 14.1% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Ian Willoughby | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 17.0% |
| Mark Davies | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.