Race 4B

captain-hurst-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Wiley Rogers 11.3% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2% 8.4% 7.8% 8.1% 7.1% 6.8% 5.6% 5.2% 4.0% 3.9% 2.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Max Clapp 8.3% 8.9% 8.7% 7.3% 8.6% 7.6% 7.3% 8.2% 6.7% 6.6% 4.4% 6.6% 3.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Hector Guzman 13.3% 13.3% 10.5% 10.7% 9.1% 8.9% 7.9% 6.2% 6.4% 4.4% 3.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Porter Killian 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 4.5% 5.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 7.0% 7.4% 5.9% 8.0% 9.2% 7.5% 6.8% 6.8%
Andrew Widmeier 5.9% 6.2% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 5.5% 6.9% 7.4% 5.7% 6.2% 6.3% 4.2% 4.6% 2.0%
Brendan Read 6.8% 6.4% 6.1% 6.8% 7.8% 8.9% 6.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.0% 5.4% 6.7% 6.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.2% 0.7%
John Ped 4.9% 4.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.6% 5.7% 5.8% 6.8% 6.3% 6.0% 7.3% 8.5% 7.4% 7.4% 6.9% 5.4% 3.4%
Henry Burnes 9.2% 8.4% 7.6% 9.0% 7.3% 5.4% 7.4% 6.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 1.9% 0.6%
Peter Neal 3.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.8% 5.9% 6.3% 6.5% 5.0% 6.8% 6.9% 7.2% 8.1% 6.0% 6.6% 7.8% 5.5% 3.3%
Casey Cabot 6.7% 7.0% 7.0% 8.4% 7.4% 8.5% 7.9% 7.1% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.2% 5.3% 4.8% 3.8% 1.7% 1.0%
Gordon Gurnell 4.2% 3.1% 2.9% 5.1% 3.9% 4.1% 4.6% 4.8% 5.4% 5.7% 6.5% 6.9% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.9% 8.6%
Nicholas Marwell 8.2% 7.6% 9.6% 7.7% 7.5% 8.2% 6.9% 7.5% 6.6% 4.8% 5.8% 6.0% 4.7% 3.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9%
Andrew Scotti 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 2.8% 2.4% 3.5% 3.2% 3.7% 5.1% 7.9% 7.1% 11.2% 14.1% 27.6%
Peter Schneider 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 3.1% 4.1% 3.2% 4.1% 4.5% 4.7% 3.1% 5.4% 5.9% 7.2% 9.6% 9.5% 14.6% 14.1%
Chris Keller 5.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.7% 6.8% 5.0% 4.7% 5.4% 6.5% 8.2% 7.3% 6.5% 6.3% 7.4% 4.8% 3.7% 3.0%
Ryder Easterlin 2.9% 1.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4% 4.7% 5.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7% 7.0% 6.9% 10.5% 10.6% 9.5%
Daniel Vail 1.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.8% 6.5% 4.1% 4.4% 6.4% 8.5% 9.9% 14.1% 17.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.