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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.25vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+4.38vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.92+4.07vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.17+6.02vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.37+4.06vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.90+1.31vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.84+0.34vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.50+0.54vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.05+1.70vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.75-2.45vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.74+0.73vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.34+1.00vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.63-0.80vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.76-6.24vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-6.38vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-6.49vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.93-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.38Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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7.07Dartmouth College2.920.1%1st Place
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10.02University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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9.06Roger Williams University2.370.0%1st Place
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7.31Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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7.34Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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8.54Tufts University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.7Connecticut College2.050.0%1st Place
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7.55Boston University2.750.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Vermont1.740.0%1st Place
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13.0University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
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12.2Eckerd College1.630.0%1st Place
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7.76University of Rhode Island2.760.1%1st Place
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8.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.1%1st Place
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9.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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10.97Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 14.7% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Max Clapp | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Porter Killian | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% |
| Peter Neal | 3.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Henry Burnes | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Chris Keller | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 7.2% |
| Casey Cabot | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Peter Schneider | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 14.8% |
| Andrew Scotti | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 27.6% |
| Daniel Vail | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 17.3% |
| Brendan Read | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| John Ped | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.