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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+4.93vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.47vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.70+4.67vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.82+3.22vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.04+5.06vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.09+0.31vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.20-1.22vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.60-0.10vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.45-0.21vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.49-1.72vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.22-1.33vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.47vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.69-1.36vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.84-2.84vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.09-4.97vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.99-5.45vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.94-2.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.67University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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7.22Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.06Stanford University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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5.78Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.9Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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8.79Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.28Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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9.67University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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10.53University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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11.64Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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11.16Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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10.03Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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10.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.990.0%1st Place
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14.01Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Schoenherr | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Munger | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Jack Bitney | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Dakota Northrup | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 11.2% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Grant Gridley | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| William Gallagher | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 6.4% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 13.3% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Sam Tobin | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| Marcus Abate | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% |
| Will Davies | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 41.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.