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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.45+7.39vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.04+8.16vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.69+8.47vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+3.61vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.20+0.66vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.49+2.58vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.09-0.89vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.60-0.13vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.84+2.25vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.95+0.52vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.82-3.66vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.99-1.60vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.70-5.25vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.94+0.02vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-8.85vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.09-5.92vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.22-7.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.39Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.16Stanford University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.47Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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7.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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5.66Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.58Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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6.11University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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7.87Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.25Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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10.52University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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7.34Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.990.0%1st Place
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7.75University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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14.02Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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10.08Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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9.64University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Mckenna | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 11.9% |
| Michael Munger | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gridley | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% |
| William Gallagher | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Marcus Abate | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 6.7% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Will Davies | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 42.1% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Tobin | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.