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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.45+7.39vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.04+8.19vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.09+3.15vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.20+1.84vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.70+2.48vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.49+2.62vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.22+2.54vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-0.55vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.82-1.68vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-3.98vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.60-2.84vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.48vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.69-1.34vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.09-3.74vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.99-4.59vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.84-4.99vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.94-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.39Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.19Stanford University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.15University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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5.84Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.48University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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8.62Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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9.54University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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7.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.32Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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8.16Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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10.52University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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11.66Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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10.26Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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10.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.990.0%1st Place
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11.01Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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13.99Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Mckenna | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 5.5% |
| Dakota Northrup | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Grant Gridley | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| Michael Munger | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Jack Bitney | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| William Gallagher | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 12.6% |
| Sam Tobin | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 5.5% |
| Marcus Abate | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.8% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| Will Davies | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 41.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.