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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.70+6.40vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.22+7.45vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+3.12vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.60+4.08vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.82+1.99vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.09+0.31vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.49+1.50vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.20-2.27vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-1.28vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.69+1.48vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.99-0.47vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.47vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.09-2.82vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.84-2.88vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.45-6.44vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.04-5.70vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.94-3.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.4University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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8.08Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.99Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.31University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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8.5Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.73Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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11.48Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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10.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.990.0%1st Place
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10.53University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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10.18Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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11.12Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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8.56Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.3Stanford University2.040.0%1st Place
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14.0Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Kite-Powell | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Jack Bitney | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Dakota Northrup | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Grant Gridley | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 13.6% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Michael Munger | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 11.9% |
| Marcus Abate | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 6.8% |
| William Gallagher | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% |
| Sam Tobin | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.9% |
| CJ Mckenna | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% |
| Will Davies | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 15.9% | 40.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.