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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+6.38vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.60+5.94vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+3.06vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.82+3.28vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.70+2.46vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.20-0.02vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College1.84+3.99vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.09-1.88vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.45-0.20vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.49-1.71vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.94+2.97vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.09-1.99vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.04-2.64vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.95-3.28vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College1.69-3.45vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.22-6.39vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.99-6.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.94Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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7.28Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.46University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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5.98Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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10.99Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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6.12University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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8.8Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.29Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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13.97Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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10.01Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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10.36Stanford University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.72University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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11.55Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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9.61University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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10.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Munger | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Bitney | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sean Tallman | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Dakota Northrup | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Grant Gridley | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Will Davies | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 14.1% | 42.1% |
| Sam Tobin | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% |
| William Gallagher | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 7.0% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 13.0% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Marcus Abate | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.