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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.20+4.64vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.70+5.56vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.04+7.24vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.95+6.64vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.45+3.40vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+0.21vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.49+1.48vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-0.63vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.09+1.28vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.69+1.44vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.82-3.64vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.60-3.96vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island3.09-6.79vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.99-3.42vs Predicted
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15University of Miami2.22-5.49vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.84-4.95vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.94-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.56University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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10.24Stanford University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.64University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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8.4Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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8.48Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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7.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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10.28Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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11.44Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.04Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.21University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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10.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.990.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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11.05Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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13.98Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 12.8% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 5.9% |
| William Gallagher | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Grant Gridley | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Michael Munger | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Sam Tobin | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 5.5% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Dakota Northrup | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Marcus Abate | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 6.5% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.9% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% |
| Will Davies | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 40.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.