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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.33+3.58vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-0.12vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.77+1.80vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.15+2.15vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan0.79+1.93vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.31-0.30vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.02-2.90vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.26-2.20vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-3.97vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.98-0.37vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-1.93-0.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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2.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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2.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
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5.8University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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7.15Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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7.93University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
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6.7University of Wisconsin1.310.0%1st Place
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5.1Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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6.8Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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6.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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10.63Rochester Institute of Technology-0.980.0%1st Place
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11.46Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Guaragna | 11.3% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 25.7% | 24.8% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 27.1% | 24.1% | 17.6% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 17.2% | 5.3% | 0.6% |
| Harrison George | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 26.3% | 9.9% | 1.0% |
| Scott Sullivan | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 9.5% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Joel Yuhas | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 9.5% | 51.2% | 26.8% |
| Justin Harler | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 21.0% | 70.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.