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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+1.96vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.77+3.76vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.31+3.80vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-1.15vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+1.08vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.33-1.52vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.79+0.78vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.02-2.89vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.26-2.18vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech-1.93+1.45vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.15-3.72vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.98-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
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5.76University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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6.8University of Wisconsin1.310.1%1st Place
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2.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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4.48Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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7.78University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
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5.11Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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6.82Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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11.45Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
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7.28Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.64Rochester Institute of Technology-0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 25.5% | 22.9% | 18.0% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Sullivan | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Easton | 27.0% | 24.9% | 18.5% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Andre Guaragna | 11.9% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison George | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 23.8% | 10.5% | 0.9% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 10.1% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Justin Harler | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 19.0% | 71.4% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 7.0% | 0.7% |
| Joel Yuhas | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 8.3% | 52.9% | 26.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.