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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.83+2.53vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.90+1.29vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine3.43+1.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+1.89vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley2.12+3.15vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+3.63vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University2.15+1.03vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California3.12-2.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles2.28-1.46vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon1.97-1.33vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay1.64-1.46vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.77+0.19vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands1.09-1.71vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.96-2.55vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-3.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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3.29Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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4.41University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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5.89University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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8.15University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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9.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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8.03Western Washington University2.150.0%1st Place
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5.28University of Southern California3.120.1%1st Place
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7.54University of California at Los Angeles2.280.0%1st Place
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8.67University of Oregon1.970.0%1st Place
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9.54California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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12.19Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
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11.29California State University Channel Islands1.090.0%1st Place
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11.45Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Peterson | 22.4% | 18.4% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 23.1% | 22.7% | 15.5% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rex Cameron | 14.2% | 12.6% | 15.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 6.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Erik Lund | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 4.7% |
| Patrick Taylor | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Emily Dahl | 10.2% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morton | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Balter | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| Steven Cassingham | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 18.6% | 28.3% |
| Andrew Domingos | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 19.9% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.