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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin1.31+5.88vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+0.95vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.77+2.77vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+2.09vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.33-0.49vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-3.08vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.26-0.20vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan0.79-0.19vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.15-1.95vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.02-4.86vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.98-0.37vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-1.93-0.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.88University of Wisconsin1.310.0%1st Place
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2.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
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5.77University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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6.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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4.51Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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2.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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6.8Washington College1.260.1%1st Place
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7.81University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
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7.05Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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5.14Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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10.63Rochester Institute of Technology-0.980.0%1st Place
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11.46Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Sullivan | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| Carrson Pearce | 26.2% | 24.1% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Andre Guaragna | 10.6% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 27.0% | 22.2% | 18.1% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Harrison George | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 24.3% | 11.4% | 0.6% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 4.7% | 0.2% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 8.8% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joel Yuhas | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 52.1% | 26.6% |
| Justin Harler | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 19.7% | 71.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.