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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+1.93vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+4.02vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-0.08vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.02+1.24vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.77+0.80vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.15+1.16vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.33-2.58vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.26-1.14vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.79-1.15vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.31-3.30vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.98-0.36vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-1.93-0.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.2%1st Place
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6.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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2.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
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5.24Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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5.8University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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7.16Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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4.42Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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6.86Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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7.85University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
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6.7University of Wisconsin1.310.0%1st Place
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10.64Rochester Institute of Technology-0.980.0%1st Place
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11.46Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Easton | 25.0% | 23.8% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Carrson Pearce | 27.6% | 22.1% | 17.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 7.1% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 18.0% | 4.8% | 0.3% |
| Andre Guaragna | 12.6% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 5.7% | 0.2% |
| Harrison George | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 16.6% | 22.8% | 10.2% | 0.3% |
| Scott Sullivan | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Joel Yuhas | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 8.5% | 51.8% | 27.2% |
| Justin Harler | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | 71.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.