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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+1.89vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+0.86vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.77+2.63vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.69+3.96vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+1.00vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.33-1.58vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.02-1.99vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.31-1.42vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.79-1.39vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.26-3.36vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech-1.93+0.18vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.90-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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2.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
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5.63University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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7.96Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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6.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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4.42Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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5.01Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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6.58University of Wisconsin1.310.0%1st Place
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7.61University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
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6.64Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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11.18Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
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11.22Rochester Institute of Technology-1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Easton | 25.6% | 22.5% | 21.7% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 26.7% | 24.0% | 18.6% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 7.2% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Rizika | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 27.0% | 7.4% | 0.4% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Andre Guaragna | 12.0% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Sullivan | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison George | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| Paul Hart | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Justin Harler | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.8% | 40.6% | 49.0% |
| Ethan Griswold | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 39.8% | 50.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.