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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.33+3.48vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+0.90vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-0.16vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.77+1.66vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.31+1.65vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.26+0.76vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-1.16vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.02-3.00vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.79-1.37vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.69-2.14vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.90+0.16vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-1.93-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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2.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
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2.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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5.66University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Wisconsin1.310.0%1st Place
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6.76Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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5.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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5.0Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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7.63University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
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7.86Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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11.16Rochester Institute of Technology-1.900.0%1st Place
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11.22Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Guaragna | 11.2% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 25.2% | 25.7% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 27.4% | 24.1% | 17.5% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Scott Sullivan | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Paul Hart | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 6.1% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 10.0% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Harrison George | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 19.5% | 21.9% | 5.3% | 0.1% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 17.2% | 26.7% | 7.2% | 0.6% |
| Ethan Griswold | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 42.1% | 47.4% |
| Justin Harler | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 38.2% | 51.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.