← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+1.87vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+3.93vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-0.20vs Predicted
-
4Jacksonville University2.33+0.44vs Predicted
-
5Boston University2.02+0.10vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University0.69+1.96vs Predicted
-
7Washington College1.26-0.34vs Predicted
-
8University of Michigan0.79-0.35vs Predicted
-
9University of Wisconsin1.31-2.45vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont1.77-4.36vs Predicted
-
11Virginia Tech-1.93+0.19vs Predicted
-
12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.90-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.3%1st Place
-
5.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
-
2.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
-
4.44Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
-
5.1Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
-
7.96Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
-
6.66Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
-
7.65University of Michigan0.790.0%1st Place
-
6.55University of Wisconsin1.310.0%1st Place
-
5.64University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
-
11.19Virginia Tech-1.930.0%1st Place
-
11.22Rochester Institute of Technology-1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 26.2% | 24.2% | 19.2% | 13.2% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 29.1% | 23.2% | 17.0% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andre Guaragna | 10.4% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 20.2% | 27.5% | 6.7% | 0.9% |
| Paul Hart | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison George | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 18.3% | 24.6% | 6.0% | 0.2% |
| Scott Sullivan | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Justin Harler | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 41.1% | 48.9% |
| Ethan Griswold | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 40.5% | 50.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.