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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.15vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin1.82+3.45vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.46+1.03vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.98+1.12vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85+0.38vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.53+0.18vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.35vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.23+0.65vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.74-3.50vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.41-3.65vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.39vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.45University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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4.03Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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5.12Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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6.18Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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4.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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8.65Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.5University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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6.35University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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10.61Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 17.1% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 8.0% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 18.1% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 8.5% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 15.6% | 9.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 13.6% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 44.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 7.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 8.3% | 80.1% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 95.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.