← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+3.85vs Predicted
-
2Jacksonville University2.46+1.95vs Predicted
-
3University of Vermont1.74+2.65vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.13vs Predicted
-
5Boston University1.98+0.09vs Predicted
-
6University of Wisconsin1.82-0.50vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-1.73vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University1.53-1.99vs Predicted
-
9University of Michigan1.41-2.68vs Predicted
-
10Washington College0.23-1.33vs Predicted
-
11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.38vs Predicted
-
12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
-
3.95Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
-
5.65University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
-
4.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
-
5.09Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
-
5.5University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
-
5.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
-
6.01Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
-
6.32University of Michigan1.410.0%1st Place
-
8.67Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
-
10.62Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
-
11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Lawlor | 12.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 16.4% | 17.5% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 15.7% | 16.5% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 9.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 10.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 44.6% | 12.5% | 0.1% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 9.4% | 79.7% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 95.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.