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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.20vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+2.74vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.82+2.44vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.46+0.04vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.74+0.69vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.41+0.44vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.98-2.02vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.53-1.97vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-3.77vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.23-1.33vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.38vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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4.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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5.44University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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4.04Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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5.69University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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6.44University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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4.98Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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6.03Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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8.67Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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10.62Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 15.9% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 15.4% | 19.0% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 12.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 9.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 43.8% | 12.6% | 0.1% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 9.3% | 79.7% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 95.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.