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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.16vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin1.82+3.44vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.46+1.02vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+0.79vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.74+0.67vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-0.58vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.98-2.01vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.53-1.99vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.41-2.70vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.23-1.36vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.39vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.44University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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4.02Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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4.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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5.67University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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4.99Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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6.01Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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6.3University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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8.64Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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10.61Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 17.1% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 18.8% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 10.2% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 44.1% | 12.4% | 0.1% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 9.3% | 79.7% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 95.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.