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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.98+4.05vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+4.08vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+2.41vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin1.82+1.37vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.46-1.11vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-2.03vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.23+1.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.65vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.74-3.65vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52+0.58vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.41-4.55vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.05Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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6.08Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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5.37University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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3.89Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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3.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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8.55Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
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5.35University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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10.58Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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6.45University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Honke | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 9.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 10.9% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 18.1% | 19.3% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 17.9% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 42.1% | 13.2% | 0.2% |
| Luke Welker | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 8.7% | 78.7% | 3.4% |
| Sherman Thompson | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 96.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.