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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.53+5.08vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.46+1.90vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.98vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin1.82+1.38vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+0.34vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.74-0.43vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.98-2.14vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.63vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.41-2.81vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52+0.58vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.23-2.19vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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3.9Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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3.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.38University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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5.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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5.57University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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4.86Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
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6.19University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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10.58Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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8.81Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sajan Alagiri | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 17.1% | 18.5% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 18.1% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 8.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 9.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 9.4% | 78.4% | 3.2% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 13.6% | 45.1% | 13.9% | 0.5% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 96.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.