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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+4.45vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.01vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.53+3.07vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.98+1.03vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.82+0.36vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.46-2.11vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.23+1.60vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.64vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.41-2.82vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.74-4.49vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.39vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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4.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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6.07Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.03Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.36University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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3.89Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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8.6Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
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6.18University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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5.51University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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10.61Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Lawless | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 16.0% | 17.7% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 9.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 18.8% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 43.7% | 12.5% | 0.3% |
| Luke Welker | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 9.4% | 79.2% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.7% | 95.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.