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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+4.54vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.00vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.53+3.08vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.23+4.73vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.98+0.01vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82-0.63vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.46-3.14vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.74-2.58vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.82-3.77vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.41-3.78vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.38vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
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4.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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6.08Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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8.73Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.01Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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3.86Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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5.42University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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5.23University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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6.22University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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10.62Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Welker | 9.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 16.8% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 15.1% | 8.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 42.9% | 12.6% | 0.2% |
| Charles Honke | 10.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 18.4% | 17.4% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 9.1% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 16.9% | 10.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 8.7% | 80.1% | 4.0% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 95.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.