← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Jacksonville University2.46+2.89vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University1.53+4.05vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+2.46vs Predicted
-
4University of Wisconsin1.82+1.38vs Predicted
-
5University of Vermont1.74+0.52vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82-0.62vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-3.06vs Predicted
-
8Washington College0.23+0.62vs Predicted
-
9Boston University1.98-4.18vs Predicted
-
10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52+0.57vs Predicted
-
11University of Michigan1.41-4.56vs Predicted
-
12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.89Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
-
6.05Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
-
5.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
-
5.38University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
-
5.52University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
-
5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
-
3.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
-
8.62Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
-
4.82Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
-
10.57Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
-
6.44University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
-
11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telmo Basterra | 18.4% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 8.2% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 18.6% | 17.7% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 44.0% | 12.8% | 0.3% |
| Charles Honke | 10.2% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 9.5% | 78.6% | 3.4% |
| Sherman Thompson | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 19.0% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 96.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.