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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+4.88vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley2.12+6.01vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.90+0.34vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii3.83-0.42vs Predicted
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5University of Oregon1.97+3.65vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine3.43-1.57vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles2.28+0.60vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+1.61vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California3.12-3.84vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay1.64-0.38vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University2.15-2.93vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands1.09-0.61vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.96-2.37vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.77-3.02vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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8.01University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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3.34Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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3.58University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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8.65University of Oregon1.970.0%1st Place
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4.43University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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7.6University of California at Los Angeles2.280.1%1st Place
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9.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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5.16University of Southern California3.120.1%1st Place
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9.62California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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8.07Western Washington University2.150.0%1st Place
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11.39California State University Channel Islands1.090.0%1st Place
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11.63Northwestern University0.960.0%1st Place
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11.98Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
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11.07University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Kaschak | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Travis Benton | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Mateo Vargas | 22.6% | 20.7% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Peterson | 21.1% | 19.0% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Balter | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Rex Cameron | 14.4% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morton | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Erik Lund | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 5.3% |
| Emily Dahl | 8.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% |
| Patrick Taylor | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Andrew Domingos | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| Nicholas Campbell | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 22.5% |
| Steven Cassingham | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 19.3% | 26.4% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.