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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+4.51vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+4.09vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.82+2.37vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.01vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+0.38vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.98-0.99vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.46-3.16vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.23+0.58vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.74-3.62vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.41-3.72vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.39vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.1%1st Place
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6.09Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.37University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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4.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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5.01Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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3.84Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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8.58Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.38University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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6.28University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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10.61Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Welker | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 15.4% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 12.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 19.5% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 44.6% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 8.3% | 80.1% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 95.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.