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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.46+3.03vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+4.16vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+1.78vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.74+1.67vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.98+0.08vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-1.90vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82-1.64vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.23+0.65vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.82-3.74vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.41-3.62vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.52-0.38vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-4.65-0.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.03Jacksonville University2.460.2%1st Place
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6.16Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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4.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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5.67University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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5.08Boston University1.980.1%1st Place
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4.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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8.65Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.26University of Wisconsin1.820.1%1st Place
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6.38University of Michigan1.410.1%1st Place
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10.62Rochester Institute of Technology-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.93Virginia Tech-4.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telmo Basterra | 17.5% | 16.3% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 8.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 14.0% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Peck | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charles Honke | 10.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 17.3% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Lawless | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 45.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Behrend | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 11.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kratina | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 8.4% | 80.0% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Berger | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 95.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.