Race 1A

north-points

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Patrick Shannon 41.3% 26.7% 19.0% 8.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Fewell 15.1% 16.6% 19.8% 18.8% 14.3% 9.2% 3.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Travis Tucker 9.5% 10.2% 13.2% 18.4% 17.9% 14.0% 9.7% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Harrison Reisinger 1.8% 3.2% 3.8% 4.2% 7.2% 10.5% 14.0% 17.4% 16.1% 13.4% 8.4%
Avery Fulford 1.5% 2.2% 3.0% 3.1% 4.4% 8.1% 10.4% 10.9% 16.7% 20.0% 19.7%
Megan Ploch 4.4% 6.5% 8.6% 12.0% 15.9% 16.3% 14.6% 10.4% 6.8% 2.9% 1.6%
Caitlin Welch 1.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 4.0% 5.2% 8.0% 10.8% 14.3% 18.6% 31.4%
TJ Danilek 20.0% 24.2% 19.6% 15.7% 10.6% 6.3% 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Thompson Betts 3.5% 3.8% 5.8% 7.6% 12.5% 13.6% 14.7% 16.3% 10.7% 7.5% 4.0%
Sara Boyd 1.2% 2.8% 2.9% 4.9% 5.5% 8.9% 11.4% 14.1% 17.3% 16.9% 14.1%
Jennifer Cahalan 0.7% 1.6% 2.2% 4.1% 4.8% 6.9% 10.5% 13.1% 15.4% 19.9% 20.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.