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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+1.96vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.08+0.35vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+3.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.29vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.60+0.14vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.99+3.35vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-1.01+2.01vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.75+0.49vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-0.07vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-1.02-0.64vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.21-1.21vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74-0.93vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.03-1.36vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.99-4.65vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-11.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.2%1st Place
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2.35California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.4%1st Place
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6.78University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Los Angeles0.110.0%1st Place
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5.14University of California at Berkeley0.600.1%1st Place
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9.35San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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9.01University of California at Davis-1.010.0%1st Place
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8.49University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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8.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.880.0%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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9.79University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
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11.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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11.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.030.0%1st Place
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9.35San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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3.83University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 24.5% | 24.1% | 18.1% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 35.6% | 26.9% | 19.1% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cassandra Shand | 3.5% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| EVAN TWIGG-SMITH | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Konrad Brine | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Matt Elliott | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Campbell | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Warren Ko | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 17.3% | 24.9% | 0.0% |
| Nolan King | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 18.8% | 36.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 14.7% | 15.8% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.