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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
25
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.91+2.34vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.28+3.10vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.81+3.60vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.34+4.69vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.72+1.87vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.79+5.15vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+10.27vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.37+5.17vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.52+2.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.45-1.97vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University-0.44+6.05vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii0.87-1.43vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.57-5.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-0.52vs Predicted
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15University of Victoria-0.56+2.62vs Predicted
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16University of Washington-0.27+0.14vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.25-1.12vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands0.15-3.78vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-0.71-1.37vs Predicted
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20University of Victoria-0.62-2.64vs Predicted
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21California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-3.73vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-0.38-5.29vs Predicted
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23University of California at Santa Barbara0.58-11.09vs Predicted
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24California Poly Maritime Academy0.46-11.45vs Predicted
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25University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-6.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34University of California at Santa Barbara2.910.3%1st Place
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5.1University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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6.6California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.340.0%1st Place
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6.87University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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11.15University of Washington0.790.0%1st Place
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17.27California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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13.17University of California at Berkeley0.370.0%1st Place
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11.95University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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8.03University of California at San Diego1.450.1%1st Place
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17.05Santa Clara University-0.440.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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13.48University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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17.62University of Victoria-0.560.0%1st Place
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16.14University of Washington-0.270.0%1st Place
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15.88San Diego State University-0.250.0%1st Place
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14.22California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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17.63University of California at Irvine-0.710.0%1st Place
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17.36University of Victoria-0.620.0%1st Place
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17.27California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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16.71University of California at Davis-0.380.0%1st Place
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11.91University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.0%1st Place
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12.55California Poly Maritime Academy0.460.0%1st Place
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18.98University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Long | 25.9% | 20.0% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 11.7% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Cefali | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hauter | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Josefina Ruggieri | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Allison Glover | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Sanchez | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| Joanna Garcia | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Dean | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Kulavic | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| Caitlyn Shum | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Jodie Jacobs | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hailey Thompson | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 21.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.