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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.59+4.10vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire0.10+7.60vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.88+4.56vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.85+0.29vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.05+1.78vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.46+3.31vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.55+1.46vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.95-3.49vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College0.05-1.17vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College0.70-1.86vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-2.01vs Predicted
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12The Citadel0.33-2.79vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.41-3.63vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-0.54-2.51vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.31-5.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1Tufts University1.5912.3%1st Place
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9.6University of New Hampshire0.103.2%1st Place
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7.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.886.2%1st Place
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4.29Harvard University1.8517.2%1st Place
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6.78University of Vermont1.057.5%1st Place
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9.31Northeastern University0.464.2%1st Place
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8.46Tufts University0.554.7%1st Place
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4.51Boston College1.9516.1%1st Place
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7.83Bowdoin College0.055.5%1st Place
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8.14Dartmouth College0.705.3%1st Place
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8.99Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.334.8%1st Place
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9.21The Citadel0.333.0%1st Place
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9.37Maine Maritime Academy0.414.3%1st Place
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11.49Northwestern University-0.542.0%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Berkeley0.313.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Macaulay | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Harrison Strom | 17.2% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Boni | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% |
| Kiana Beachy | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 16.1% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Henri Richardsson | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% |
| Anna Kovacs | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 30.3% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.