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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.35+2.27vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+1.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.17+0.63vs Predicted
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4Monmouth University0.36+4.64vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech1.15+1.17vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.60+1.84vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.03vs Predicted
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8University of Delaware-0.30+2.36vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-1.63vs Predicted
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10University of Pittsburgh-0.62+1.40vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-1.95+2.07vs Predicted
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13Villanova University0.11-3.73vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.58-6.22vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College-0.60-3.79vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-0.12-5.94vs Predicted
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17Penn State University-2.21-2.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.27George Washington University2.350.2%1st Place
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3.31Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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3.63U. S. Naval Academy2.170.2%1st Place
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8.64Monmouth University0.360.0%1st Place
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6.17Virginia Tech1.150.1%1st Place
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7.84Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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6.97SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.37Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Pittsburgh-0.620.0%1st Place
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14.07Rutgers University-1.950.0%1st Place
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9.27Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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7.78Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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11.21Ocean County College-0.600.0%1st Place
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10.06Webb Institute-0.120.0%1st Place
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14.65Penn State University-2.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bennett | 24.2% | 19.6% | 18.4% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 22.2% | 22.8% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Margay | 19.0% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Brady | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Henry Proud | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Crandall | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 1.7% |
| Townsend Morey | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Merrill | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 18.6% | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Sophia Rosahl | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 10.4% | 29.2% | 38.1% |
| Brian Tiernan | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Luke Dunton | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 17.4% | 10.8% | 3.7% |
| John Dixon | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 0.7% |
| Noah Yoskowitz | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 25.8% | 50.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.