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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+5.25vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.56+7.01vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.75+5.17vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+7.57vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.35+4.63vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.65vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.97+4.32vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.48+1.05vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.81-1.38vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.14+0.87vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.30-0.92vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-1.20vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.23-2.94vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-4.84vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.56-6.23vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.53-7.04vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.12-6.12vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University3.43-8.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.01Bowdoin College3.560.0%1st Place
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8.17College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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11.57Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.63Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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11.32Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.05Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.62Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.87Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Naval Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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10.06Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.77Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.96Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.88Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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9.16Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 11.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Augie Dale | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 14.1% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Trevor Long | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 10.8% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
| Parker Loftus | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% |
| Mack Fox | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% |
| Conner Harding | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Romain Screve | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Eli Burnes | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.