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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+7.19vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.56+6.98vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+3.15vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+5.49vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.35+4.60vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81+1.70vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.30+2.93vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+2.26vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.48+0.06vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-0.91vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.23-0.59vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.53-2.67vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.97-1.85vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-4.78vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.89-3.32vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.12-5.19vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University3.43-7.49vs Predicted
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18Tufts University3.14-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.19College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.98Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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6.15Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.6Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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7.7Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.06Brown University3.480.0%1st Place
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9.09Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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10.41Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.33Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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11.15Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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11.68Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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10.81Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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9.51Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.43Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 6.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Long | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% |
| Mack Fox | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Romain Screve | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Conner Harding | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.9% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 14.2% |
| Eli Burnes | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.